exp: 轮次45——tie(等长安全前缀按沿路最小间隙定夺)判掉

两臂 n=256 同 seed 背靠背(配方=轮次42 K8+cert_batch=1+inc_cap=1)：到达 0.5234→0.5039
(-1.95pp，逐题配对丢6赢1净-5，McNemar 精确 p=0.125 与零不可分)，时限内 +1.17pp、
刹停 -9%、行程比 -0.076、执行碰撞仍为 0(判据未放松)。丢的 6 题 5 题在 A 类(开阔区)
=买余量卖进度的签名。

仪表与离线数交叉验证：改选率 5.58% 对上轮次44 独立测得的"执行点间隙落在 0.2–0.5mm 占
5.6%"，并列率 79.0% 对上"满前缀 79.4%" ⇒ 分辨率上界被宽相位截顶 gcap=max(0.5,margin+0.5)
锁死，5.6% 是这个家族在 cap=0.5 下的天花板，不是实现没调好。

结构性发现：#24 作用在错的人群——tie 只在 maxlen>0 触发，而失败主人群是全拒(maxlen=0，
未到达题 22% 的规划)；全拒那条已由 backoff(轮次43)判掉。前置条件记为 #28(gcap 与
gap_margin 解耦)。

实现账：新增 tie 与触发计数器(生产端 per 数组+dump 键、消费端汇总 tie_* 同批改完，
tie=0 时 22/22 老键逐位复现)；修掉 tie 分支局部名 nmax 顶掉主循环总步数的遮蔽 bug，
守卫单测做过变异检查；计数器正对照可手算(tie_opp=tie_changed=n_plans)。47 项测试绿。

docs/experiment_round42_K8cb1_dump.json

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+{
+  "config": {
+    "ckpt": "ml/runs/base_dag2_dag1/best.pt",
+    "samples": "ml/data/samples",
+    "tasks": null,
+    "split": "val",
+    "n": 256,
+    "K": 8,
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+    "fb_clear": 0.0,
+    "fb_cmin": 0.3,
+    "sub_refresh": 0,
+    "fb_block_gain": 0.5,
+    "dump": "ml/runs/round42_K8cb1_rows.json",
+    "out": "docs/experiment_round42_K8cb1_dump.json",
+    "trace": null,
+    "select": "endpoint",
+    "replan": "empty",
+    "safety": 1,
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+    "backoff": 0,
+    "max_sec": null,
+    "seed": 0,
+    "dls": "analytic",
+    "device": "cuda"
+  },
+  "batch_size": 256,
+  "batch_seed_rule": "same seed per batch",
+  "checkpoint_sha256": "f7f686fd8ee92fb6948fbcc4ee954636065ad87bb54f661c4f8f575bc16c2ce1",
+  "tasks_sha256": "249bd93457825cda98c59e64d9a096d3473c69aeb3553de1dea6d9e56be71772",
+  "kin_fp": "2ebcbf17",
+  "act_scale": 1.0,
+  "metrics": {
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+    "collision_free_success": 0.5234375,
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+    "collision_rate": 0.0,
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+    "brakes_mean": 19.5546875,
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+    "err_fail_med": 204.71360778808594,
+    "err_success_med": 0.21751396358013153,
+    "dls_share": 0.61328125,
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+    "speed_ratio_p95": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "speed_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "over_vmax_rate": 0.0,
+    "accel_ratio_p95": 1.0000016689300537,
+    "accel_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "reverse_p50": 0.24741201102733612,
+    "reverse_mean": 0.25991496443748474,
+    "reverse_moving_p50": 0.32581019401550293,
+    "moving_share_p50": 0.9587156176567078,
+    "brake_rate_mean": 0.10028044879436493,
+    "brake_rate_p50": 0.0051282052882015705,
+    "brake_rate_p90": 0.3153846263885498,
+    "stuck_share": 0.234375,
+    "n_plans_mean": 195.0,
+    "success_reachable": 0.5514403581619263,
+    "by_cat": {
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+        96
+      ],
+      "B": [
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+        20
+      ],
+      "C": [
+        32,
+        11
+      ],
+      "D": [
+        13,
+        0
+      ],
+      "Dr": [
+        9,
+        7
+      ]
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation_wall_s": 397.44336470001144
+}

docs/experiment_round44_tieprobe64.json

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+{
+  "config": {
+    "ckpt": "ml/runs/base_dag2_dag1/best.pt",
+    "samples": "ml/data/samples",
+    "tasks": null,
+    "split": "val",
+    "n": 64,
+    "K": 8,
+    "commit": 2,
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+    "fb_clear": 0.0,
+    "fb_cmin": 0.3,
+    "sub_refresh": 0,
+    "fb_block_gain": 0.5,
+    "dump": "ml/runs/round44_tieprobe64_rows.json",
+    "out": "docs/experiment_round44_tieprobe64.json",
+    "trace": null,
+    "select": "endpoint",
+    "replan": "empty",
+    "safety": 1,
+    "partial": 1,
+    "inc_cap": 1,
+    "gap_margin": 0.0,
+    "cert_batch": 1,
+    "steps": 1,
+    "z_scale": 1.0,
+    "len_w": 0.0,
+    "tie": 1,
+    "backoff": 0,
+    "max_sec": null,
+    "seed": 0,
+    "dls": "analytic",
+    "device": "cuda"
+  },
+  "batch_size": 256,
+  "batch_seed_rule": "same seed per batch",
+  "checkpoint_sha256": "f7f686fd8ee92fb6948fbcc4ee954636065ad87bb54f661c4f8f575bc16c2ce1",
+  "tasks_sha256": "6185a312dbae3bf5b361c4b9ff3aa11b7329d9723cff2be9b9157563d6b6ec1c",
+  "kin_fp": "2ebcbf17",
+  "act_scale": 1.0,
+  "metrics": {
+    "n": 64,
+    "n_ref": 64,
+    "success": 0.40625,
+    "collision_free_success": 0.40625,
+    "time_ok_1p3": 0.234375,
+    "collision_rate": 0.0,
+    "collision_steps_mean": 0.0,
+    "travel_ratio_median": 2.358931303024292,
+    "time_mean_s": 2.3323075771331787,
+    "brakes_mean": 18.71875,
+    "start_fail": 0.0,
+    "goal_ratio_2s": 0.33309799432754517,
+    "err_fail_med": 229.02410888671875,
+    "err_success_med": 0.22094391286373138,
+    "dls_share": 0.515625,
+    "time_budget": "teacher×2(≥3 s)",
+    "speed_ratio_p50": 1.0000016689300537,
+    "speed_ratio_p95": 1.0000091791152954,
+    "speed_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "over_vmax_rate": 0.0,
+    "accel_ratio_p95": 1.0000016689300537,
+    "accel_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "reverse_p50": 0.25150150060653687,
+    "reverse_mean": 0.25861242413520813,
+    "reverse_moving_p50": 0.318452388048172,
+    "moving_share_p50": 0.9090909361839294,
+    "brake_rate_mean": 0.10696429014205933,
+    "brake_rate_p50": 0.017142856493592262,
+    "brake_rate_p90": 0.33142855763435364,
+    "stuck_share": 0.21875,
+    "n_plans_mean": 175.0,
+    "success_reachable": 0.4262295067310333,
+    "by_cat": {
+      "A": [
+        28,
+        14
+      ],
+      "B": [
+        21,
+        6
+      ],
+      "C": [
+        9,
+        4
+      ],
+      "D": [
+        3,
+        0
+      ],
+      "Dr": [
+        3,
+        2
+      ]
+    },
+    "tie_opp_rate_mean": 0.7484821081161499,
+    "tie_changed_rate_mean": 0.07437500357627869,
+    "tie_opp_task_share": 1.0
+  },
+  "simulation_wall_s": 78.19308080000337
+}

docs/experiment_round45_tie0.json

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+{
+  "config": {
+    "ckpt": "ml/runs/base_dag2_dag1/best.pt",
+    "samples": "ml/data/samples",
+    "tasks": null,
+    "split": "val",
+    "n": 256,
+    "K": 8,
+    "commit": 2,
+    "fb": 2.2,
+    "ki": 0.0,
+    "fb_scale": 0.0,
+    "fb_near": 0.2,
+    "fb_fallback": 0.0,
+    "kdecay": 0.9,
+    "kimax": 0.5,
+    "fb_every": 1,
+    "safety_try": 0,
+    "sel_w": 0.1,
+    "dls_safety": 1,
+    "fb_clear": 0.0,
+    "fb_cmin": 0.3,
+    "sub_refresh": 0,
+    "fb_block_gain": 0.5,
+    "dump": "ml/runs/round45_tie0_rows.json",
+    "out": "docs/experiment_round45_tie0.json",
+    "trace": null,
+    "select": "endpoint",
+    "replan": "empty",
+    "safety": 1,
+    "partial": 1,
+    "inc_cap": 1,
+    "gap_margin": 0.0,
+    "cert_batch": 1,
+    "steps": 1,
+    "z_scale": 1.0,
+    "len_w": 0.0,
+    "tie": 0,
+    "backoff": 0,
+    "max_sec": null,
+    "seed": 0,
+    "dls": "analytic",
+    "device": "cuda"
+  },
+  "batch_size": 256,
+  "batch_seed_rule": "same seed per batch",
+  "checkpoint_sha256": "f7f686fd8ee92fb6948fbcc4ee954636065ad87bb54f661c4f8f575bc16c2ce1",
+  "tasks_sha256": "249bd93457825cda98c59e64d9a096d3473c69aeb3553de1dea6d9e56be71772",
+  "kin_fp": "2ebcbf17",
+  "act_scale": 1.0,
+  "metrics": {
+    "n": 256,
+    "n_ref": 256,
+    "success": 0.5234375,
+    "collision_free_success": 0.5234375,
+    "time_ok_1p3": 0.265625,
+    "collision_rate": 0.0,
+    "collision_steps_mean": 0.0,
+    "travel_ratio_median": 2.615795850753784,
+    "time_mean_s": 2.486567258834839,
+    "brakes_mean": 19.5546875,
+    "start_fail": 0.0,
+    "goal_ratio_2s": 0.27920001745224,
+    "err_fail_med": 204.71360778808594,
+    "err_success_med": 0.21751396358013153,
+    "dls_share": 0.61328125,
+    "time_budget": "teacher×2(≥3 s)",
+    "speed_ratio_p50": 1.0000016689300537,
+    "speed_ratio_p95": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "speed_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "over_vmax_rate": 0.0,
+    "accel_ratio_p95": 1.0000016689300537,
+    "accel_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "reverse_p50": 0.24741201102733612,
+    "reverse_mean": 0.25991496443748474,
+    "reverse_moving_p50": 0.32581019401550293,
+    "moving_share_p50": 0.9587156176567078,
+    "brake_rate_mean": 0.10028044879436493,
+    "brake_rate_p50": 0.0051282052882015705,
+    "brake_rate_p90": 0.3153846263885498,
+    "stuck_share": 0.234375,
+    "n_plans_mean": 195.0,
+    "success_reachable": 0.5514403581619263,
+    "by_cat": {
+      "A": [
+        128,
+        96
+      ],
+      "B": [
+        74,
+        20
+      ],
+      "C": [
+        32,
+        11
+      ],
+      "D": [
+        13,
+        0
+      ],
+      "Dr": [
+        9,
+        7
+      ]
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation_wall_s": 317.56223549999413
+}

docs/experiment_round45_tie1.json

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+{
+  "config": {
+    "ckpt": "ml/runs/base_dag2_dag1/best.pt",
+    "samples": "ml/data/samples",
+    "tasks": null,
+    "split": "val",
+    "n": 256,
+    "K": 8,
+    "commit": 2,
+    "fb": 2.2,
+    "ki": 0.0,
+    "fb_scale": 0.0,
+    "fb_near": 0.2,
+    "fb_fallback": 0.0,
+    "kdecay": 0.9,
+    "kimax": 0.5,
+    "fb_every": 1,
+    "safety_try": 0,
+    "sel_w": 0.1,
+    "dls_safety": 1,
+    "fb_clear": 0.0,
+    "fb_cmin": 0.3,
+    "sub_refresh": 0,
+    "fb_block_gain": 0.5,
+    "dump": "ml/runs/round45_tie1_rows.json",
+    "out": "docs/experiment_round45_tie1.json",
+    "trace": null,
+    "select": "endpoint",
+    "replan": "empty",
+    "safety": 1,
+    "partial": 1,
+    "inc_cap": 1,
+    "gap_margin": 0.0,
+    "cert_batch": 1,
+    "steps": 1,
+    "z_scale": 1.0,
+    "len_w": 0.0,
+    "tie": 1,
+    "backoff": 0,
+    "max_sec": null,
+    "seed": 0,
+    "dls": "analytic",
+    "device": "cuda"
+  },
+  "batch_size": 256,
+  "batch_seed_rule": "same seed per batch",
+  "checkpoint_sha256": "f7f686fd8ee92fb6948fbcc4ee954636065ad87bb54f661c4f8f575bc16c2ce1",
+  "tasks_sha256": "249bd93457825cda98c59e64d9a096d3473c69aeb3553de1dea6d9e56be71772",
+  "kin_fp": "2ebcbf17",
+  "act_scale": 1.0,
+  "metrics": {
+    "n": 256,
+    "n_ref": 256,
+    "success": 0.50390625,
+    "collision_free_success": 0.50390625,
+    "time_ok_1p3": 0.27734375,
+    "collision_rate": 0.0,
+    "collision_steps_mean": 0.0,
+    "travel_ratio_median": 2.53989315032959,
+    "time_mean_s": 2.3586044311523438,
+    "brakes_mean": 17.7890625,
+    "start_fail": 0.0,
+    "goal_ratio_2s": 0.27920001745224,
+    "err_fail_med": 213.06358337402344,
+    "err_success_med": 0.22968679666519165,
+    "dls_share": 0.62109375,
+    "time_budget": "teacher×2(≥3 s)",
+    "speed_ratio_p50": 1.0000016689300537,
+    "speed_ratio_p95": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "speed_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "over_vmax_rate": 0.0,
+    "accel_ratio_p95": 1.0000016689300537,
+    "accel_ratio_max": 1.0000101327896118,
+    "reverse_p50": 0.25315314531326294,
+    "reverse_mean": 0.26444095373153687,
+    "reverse_moving_p50": 0.3198198080062866,
+    "moving_share_p50": 0.9772727489471436,
+    "brake_rate_mean": 0.09122596681118011,
+    "brake_rate_p50": 0.0,
+    "brake_rate_p90": 0.3282051384449005,
+    "stuck_share": 0.203125,
+    "n_plans_mean": 195.0,
+    "success_reachable": 0.5308641791343689,
+    "by_cat": {
+      "A": [
+        128,
+        91
+      ],
+      "B": [
+        74,
+        19
+      ],
+      "C": [
+        32,
+        12
+      ],
+      "D": [
+        13,
+        0
+      ],
+      "Dr": [
+        9,
+        7
+      ]
+    },
+    "tie_opp_rate_mean": 0.7898838520050049,
+    "tie_changed_rate_mean": 0.055829327553510666,
+    "tie_opp_task_share": 1.0
+  },
+  "simulation_wall_s": 283.46215640001174
+}

docs/探索日志.md

@@ -31,7 +31,8 @@
 
 | 序 | 候选 | 支撑证据 | 状态 |
 |---|---|---|---|
-| 0 | **把"沿路最小间隙"接进候选打分**（#24） | 安全层的拒绝是真实几何（端点/中点穿模），而 `cert_batch=1` 已经在同一次 gaps 调用里算了 K 条候选各 `2·commit_n` 个点的间隙——**这些信息目前只用来判通过/拒绝，没进打分**。做法：`score = −e_end − w·relu(gap_ref − min_gap_path)`，让"会穿模"的候选在排序阶段就出局，而不是等安全层全拒。代价为零（同一批数），判据完全不放松 | 待实现（链跑完后动库） |
+| 0 | ~~把"沿路最小间隙"接进候选打分~~（极端版 = `--tie 1`：只在"前缀最长"的并列集合内按余量定夺，零额外几何） | 轮次 45 两臂：到达 −1.95 pp（净 −5 题，McNemar p=0.125 与零不可分）、时限 +1.17 pp、刹停 −9%、行程 −0.076、**碰撞仍 0**；且分辨率被 `gcap=0.5 mm` 截顶锁死（并列 79% 但只有 5.6% 可分辨，与轮次 44 离线 5.6% 对上） | **判掉**：买余量卖进度，且作用在 `maxlen>0` 的人群——失败主人群是全拒（`maxlen=0`）。前置条件见 #28 |
+| 0b | **#28 抬宽相位截顶 `gcap` 并与 `gap_margin` 解耦** | 现在 `--gap_margin 1.5` 会同时抬截顶值和验收门限，动一个必动另一个；`_coarse` 保留 `d ≤ cp_lim + cap` 的胶囊对 ⇒ 成本随壳层体积涨，而 GPU 周期 P50 已 33.5 ms | 未实现（要新增只改数值精度的参数，不许碰判据） |
 | 1 | **候选数翻倍 K=8→16** | 轮次 39 实测：到达 **+3.9 pp**、时限内 **+3.1 pp**、**刹车 −30%**（19.55→13.77）、碰撞仍 0、行程比不变 ⇒ 很多"全拒"是**没备选**而不是真没路 | **正向**；认证/打分成本要用独占微基准量完才能谈部署 |
 | 2 | **全拒时缩步顶上**（`--backoff`：首选候选按 1/2、1/4、1/8 并进同一次认证，只在原候选连第 1 步都不安全时启用） | 失败分类 63/109 是"被冻住"、未到组 37% 步为零运动；但 4 题 CPU 冒烟提示转化率只 ~13% | 代码与单测已落，256 题四臂待补跑（判读规则已预注册） |
 | 3 | **白费比例惩罚**（`select=ep_waste --len_w`，罚 `1−同轴净/总` × 当前误差） | 换向是**全局**现象（~1/4 的(步,轴)对在反向，到达/未到达两组差不多）；净位移只占总行程 0.445 | 已实现+正对照单测（可手算 2/18）；三臂排队 |
@@ -108,6 +109,29 @@
 - **对 `backoff` 的预期与判据**：全拒意味着"连第 1 步的端点或中点已经穿进障碍"，缩步能不能救取决于**穿得有多深**（穿 0.1 mm 救得回，穿 3 mm 救不回）。这个数转储里没记（只记被选中那条），所以直接由 `backoff_mean`/`reject_all_mean` 来量：
   `reject_all_mean ≈ 原全拒次数`（=backoff_mean+brakes_mean，与轮次 33 cap 的 19.55 可比），`backoff_mean/(backoff_mean+brakes_mean)` 就是"缩步能救回的比例"。这是补跑（#22）要读的第一个数。
 
+## 轮次 45：`tie`（等长安全前缀按沿路最小间隙定夺）判掉——它买的是余量，卖的是进度，而且作用在错的人群上
+
+- **做法**：`cert_batch=1` 已经在同一次几何调用里算了 K 条候选各 `2·commit_n` 个点的间隙，但这些信息只用来判通过/拒绝。`--tie 1` 让"前缀最长"的并列集合改由**沿路最小间隙**定夺；零额外几何调用，判据一个字没动（仍是 `gap > gap_margin`）。
+- **先测触发率再花钱**（阈值预注册：<1% 直接判掉，≥5% 才跑两臂）。n=64 探针：并列率 `tie_opp_rate=74.8%`、真的改选率 `tie_changed_rate=7.4%` ⇒ 过线，才投 256 题两臂。
+- **两臂 A/B（n=256、同 seed、同窗口背靠背，配方=轮次 42 的 `K8 + cert_batch=1 + inc_cap=1`）**：
+
+  | 读数 | A `tie=0` | B `tie=1` | 差 |
+  |---|---|---|---|
+  | 到达 / 无碰撞到达 | 0.5234 | 0.5039 | **−1.95 pp** |
+  | 时限内(≤1.3×老师) | 0.2656 | 0.2773 | +1.17 pp |
+  | 执行碰撞率 | 0.0 | **0.0** | 判据未放松（硬门槛通过） |
+  | 刹停/题 | 19.55 | 17.79 | −9.0% |
+  | 卡住题占比(刹停>20%) | 23.4% | 20.3% | −3.1 pp |
+  | 行程比中位 | 2.6158 | 2.5399 | −0.076 |
+  | 到达均值用时 | 2.487 s | 2.359 s | −0.128 s |
+
+- **统计诚实**：逐题配对**丢 6 题、赢 1 题，净 −5**；McNemar 精确双侧 **p = 0.125** ⇒ 到达差异在这个分母上与零不可分。所以结论不是"它显著变差"，而是**没有任何正向证据，且方向为负**；而刹停/行程/用时全部朝"更保守"的方向动，与到达同向恶化是一个自洽的签名，不是噪声。丢的 6 题里 **5 题在 A 类（开阔均匀区）**，唯一赢的那题在 C 类（贴立柱）。
+- **仪表与独立离线数对上了（这条比 A/B 本身更有说服力）**：本轮 256 题的改选率 **5.58%**，与轮次 44 纯离线量到的"执行点间隙落在 0.2–0.5 mm 的占比 **5.6%**"逐位同量级；并列率 79.0% 对上"满前缀 79.4%"。⇒ **余量能分辨的上界就是"有多少执行点真的贴进 0.5 mm 以内"**，被宽相位截顶 `gcap = max(0.5, gap_margin+0.5)` 锁死（凡沿途间隙都 >0.5 mm 的候选，`min_gap` 恒等于 0.5，排序上完全并列）。所以 5.6% 是这个家族在 cap=0.5 下的**天花板**，不是实现没调好。
+- **机理判读**：并列集合里"余量最大"的那条通常也是"位移最小"的那条。默认口径由选择器分数（终点误差）定夺 = 用进度换余量的风险由策略承担；`tie=1` 把判据整个换成余量 ⇒ 在根本没有障碍的 A 类纯亏进度。正确形态若要保留这条线，只能是"进度 + 余量"的加权，而加权又要一个新的自由系数——在当前 −5 的背景下不值得一轮。
+- **结构性发现（否掉的是实现，更是提问方式）**：#24 从提出起就**作用在错的人群**。失败主人群是"全拒（`maxlen=0`）"——未到达题 22.0% 的规划连第 1 步都不安全；而 `tie` 只在 `maxlen>0` 时触发。全拒人群的杠杆是 `backoff`（轮次 43 已判掉：能救回停步、救不回通路）。⇒ "选哪条活路"这件事，对已经走通的路影响很小，对走不通的路毫无影响。
+- **本轮踩到并修掉的实现洞**：tie 分支里我用了局部名 `nmax`，把主循环的"总步数"顶掉 ⇒ 进度回调 `%d` 收到张量直接炸（第一次 n=64 探针就是这么失败的）。修法是改名 `ntile`，并补一条守卫单测（tie=1 必须带 `progress` 跑通且 `total` 保持标量）；**守卫做过变异检查**——把 `ntile` 换回 `nmax`，守卫立刻变红。计数器的正对照也可手算：夹具里两条候选永远全安全 ⇒ `tie_opp = tie_changed = n_plans`、两个比率恒 1。47 项测试全绿。
+- **不采纳**。前置条件记为 #28：先把"数值截顶 `gcap`"与"验收门限 `gap_margin`"解耦（现在 `--gap_margin 1.5` 会同时抬截顶值和门限，动一个必动另一个），再量 cap=0.5/2/5 mm 下的分辨率与几何耗时（`_coarse` 保留 `d ≤ cp_lim + cap` 的胶囊对，成本随壳层体积涨）。**但即使分辨率上来，人群错配也不会被修好**，所以这条只作为"贴边题（C 类）里选哪条活路"的低优先候选保留。
+
 ## #27：K=16 的增益**不集中在 B/C**——B 类缺口是策略能力，不是候选容量（轮次 44，逐题 dump）
 
 - K=8 与 K=16（都 `--cert_batch 1 --inc_cap 1`，同 256 题同 seed）逐题对齐后按类别：