From c9344599af206f267caa86dd63856fd964f7b1b8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: cbb <2625274797@qq.com>
Date: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 22:50:41 +0800
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---
 docs/experiment_round38_steps_cost.json | 611 ++++++++++++++++++++++++
 docs/探索日志.md                        |  15 +
 2 files changed, 626 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 docs/experiment_round38_steps_cost.json

diff --git a/docs/experiment_round38_steps_cost.json b/docs/experiment_round38_steps_cost.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..064054d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/experiment_round38_steps_cost.json
@@ -0,0 +1,611 @@
+{
+ "device": "NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090",
+ "B": 1,
+ "K": 8,
+ "rounds": 24,
+ "per_round": {
+  "1": [
+   {
+    "p50": 9.198,
+    "p95": 11.654,
+    "p99": 12.236,
+    "max": 12.236
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 13.105,
+    "p99": 13.765,
+    "max": 13.765
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 12.363,
+    "p99": 15.901,
+    "max": 15.901
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 8.894,
+    "p95": 10.426,
+    "p99": 11.641,
+    "max": 11.641
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 11.664,
+    "p99": 11.874,
+    "max": 11.874
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 13.502,
+    "p99": 13.951,
+    "max": 13.951
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 10.991,
+    "p99": 11.978,
+    "max": 11.978
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 13.894,
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+    "max": 17.102
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 13.07,
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+    "max": 13.111
+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 10.405
+   },
+   {
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+    "p99": 12.272,
+    "max": 12.272
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 13.516,
+    "p99": 15.963,
+    "max": 15.963
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 11.004,
+    "p99": 11.308,
+    "max": 11.308
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 10.7,
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+    "max": 11.144
+   },
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+    "max": 12.171
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 10.88,
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+    "max": 11.94
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 9.918,
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+   {
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+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 10.188,
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+    "max": 11.614
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 19.998,
+    "p99": 25.582,
+    "max": 25.582
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 15.293,
+    "p99": 16.308,
+    "max": 16.308
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 9.67,
+    "p95": 13.045,
+    "p99": 13.805,
+    "max": 13.805
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 10.331,
+    "p95": 13.905,
+    "p99": 21.628,
+    "max": 21.628
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 8.96,
+    "p95": 10.848,
+    "p99": 11.741,
+    "max": 11.741
+   }
+  ],
+  "2": [
+   {
+    "p50": 15.201,
+    "p95": 18.17,
+    "p99": 19.766,
+    "max": 19.766
+   },
+   {
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+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 19.078
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+    "max": 21.951
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+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 33.077
+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 17.522
+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 19.497
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 19.893,
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+    "max": 21.052
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 16.796,
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+    "max": 16.882
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+   {
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+    "max": 17.543
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+  "4": [
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+   },
+   {
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+   {
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+    "max": 42.061
+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 32.127
+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 34.469
+   },
+   {
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+   {
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+    "max": 35.603
+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 38.661
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+   {
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+    "max": 31.087
+   },
+   {
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+    "p95": 31.043,
+    "p99": 39.867,
+    "max": 39.867
+   }
+  ],
+  "8": [
+   {
+    "p50": 52.266,
+    "p95": 68.035,
+    "p99": 74.885,
+    "max": 74.885
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 54.125,
+    "p95": 85.092,
+    "p99": 96.265,
+    "max": 96.265
+   },
+   {
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+    "max": 87.312
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+   {
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+    "p50": 50.468,
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+   {
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+   {
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+    "max": 68.662
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+   {
+    "p50": 51.393,
+    "p95": 75.776,
+    "p99": 83.858,
+    "max": 83.858
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+   {
+    "p50": 51.953,
+    "p95": 67.169,
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+    "max": 69.287
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+   {
+    "p50": 50.324,
+    "p95": 60.185,
+    "p99": 68.603,
+    "max": 68.603
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+   {
+    "p50": 50.893,
+    "p95": 54.805,
+    "p99": 58.967,
+    "max": 58.967
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+   {
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+    "max": 72.674
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 48.672,
+    "p95": 62.026,
+    "p99": 62.276,
+    "max": 62.276
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 50.777,
+    "p95": 65.002,
+    "p99": 66.318,
+    "max": 66.318
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 48.835,
+    "p95": 57.514,
+    "p99": 69.18,
+    "max": 69.18
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 50.785,
+    "p95": 73.072,
+    "p99": 75.93,
+    "max": 75.93
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 50.684,
+    "p95": 65.827,
+    "p99": 75.478,
+    "max": 75.478
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 50.341,
+    "p95": 57.511,
+    "p99": 58.992,
+    "max": 58.992
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 51.567,
+    "p95": 66.644,
+    "p99": 67.094,
+    "max": 67.094
+   },
+   {
+    "p50": 52.094,
+    "p95": 71.313,
+    "p99": 73.767,
+    "max": 73.767
+   }
+  ]
+ },
+ "summary": {
+  "p501": 9.019,
+  "p951": 11.911,
+  "p991": 12.272,
+  "p502": 14.984,
+  "p952": 18.549,
+  "p992": 19.766,
+  "p504": 26.724,
+  "p954": 31.253,
+  "p994": 34.178,
+  "p508": 51.069,
+  "p958": 65.002,
+  "p998": 68.662
+ },
+ "delta_vs_1step_ms": {
+  "d502": 5.965,
+  "d504": 17.705,
+  "d508": 42.05
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/docs/探索日志.md b/docs/探索日志.md
index 8063bcc..6cd0c5e 100644
--- a/docs/探索日志.md
+++ b/docs/探索日志.md
@@ -107,6 +107,21 @@
 - **对 `backoff` 的预期与判据**：全拒意味着"连第 1 步的端点或中点已经穿进障碍"，缩步能不能救取决于**穿得有多深**（穿 0.1 mm 救得回，穿 3 mm 救不回）。这个数转储里没记（只记被选中那条），所以直接由 `backoff_mean`/`reject_all_mean` 来量：
   `reject_all_mean ≈ 原全拒次数`（=backoff_mean+brakes_mean，与轮次 33 cap 的 19.55 可比），`backoff_mean/(backoff_mean+brakes_mean)` 就是"缩步能救回的比例"。这是补跑（#22）要读的第一个数。
 
+## 多段推理的代价实测（B=1、K=8、逐轮交替、奇数轮反序）
+
+- `docs/experiment_round38_steps_cost.json`（24 轮 × 每轮 40 次，取每档的中位）：
+
+  | 段数 | 推理 P50 | 相对 1 段增量 |
+  |---|---|---|
+  | 1 | 9.02 ms | — |
+  | 2 | 14.98 ms | **+5.97 ms** |
+  | 4 | 26.72 ms | +17.71 ms |
+  | 8 | 51.07 ms | +42.05 ms |
+
+- 每多一段 ≈ 多一次解码器前向（编码器 `mem` 只算一次），所以增量近似线性；9.02 ms 这一档比轮次 33 报的 7.2 ms 高，是不同会话的时钟/上下文差别，**只用同批内的差值，不用绝对值跨轮比**。
+- 合到整周期上：轮次 34 的现口径 P50 ≈ 33.5 ms，两段就是 ≈39.5 ms（25 Hz），四段 ≈51 ms（19.6 Hz）——**离 20 ms 预算更远**，所以"靠多段推理把一步的偏差补回来"在部署上不成立，只能作为开环诊断口径。
+- 与 K 这条轴叠加会更糟（K=16 认证点翻倍），所以 `K=8/16 × cert_batch=0/1` 的四格周期微基准排在当前批次里（`ml/runs/_kcost_probe.py`），这是判断"候选数能不能买到部署里的到达率"的关键一列。
+
 ## 候选为什么会"塌"：两段积分把 K 条候选吸成一条（轮次 39 探针，机理定案）
 
 - `ml/runs/_cand_div.py`（256 题特征、同一批噪声 z、K=8，只改段数）：