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exp: backoff四臂判掉——转化率7.7→37%但到达/时限不赚(0.5234→0.5156)；且它单独改善brake_rate达16%而行为未变好=可绕过§9.2判据

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2026-10-20 23:42:50 +08:00
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docs/experiment_round38_backoff1.json
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docs/experiment_round38_backoff2.json
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docs/experiment_round38_backoff3.json
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docs/探索日志.md
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- **对 `backoff` 的预期与判据**：全拒意味着"连第 1 步的端点或中点已经穿进障碍"，缩步能不能救取决于**穿得有多深**（穿 0.1 mm 救得回，穿 3 mm 救不回）。这个数转储里没记（只记被选中那条），所以直接由 `backoff_mean`/`reject_all_mean` 来量：
`reject_all_mean ≈ 原全拒次数`（=backoff_mean+brakes_mean，与轮次 33 cap 的 19.55 可比），`backoff_mean/(backoff_mean+brakes_mean)` 就是"缩步能救回的比例"。这是补跑（#22）要读的第一个数。
## `backoff` 四臂判掉：转化率能买到刹停率，买不到到达——而且它能**绕过 §9.2 的判据**（轮次 43）
- 同一 256 题同 seed、`--inc_cap 1 --cert_batch 1`，只改缩步档数（`docs/experiment_round38_backoff{0,1,2,3}.json`）：
| 档数 | 到达 | 时限内 | 刹停/题 | 缩步顶上/题 | 全拒事件合计 | 转化率 | `brake_rate` mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0（对照） | 0.5234 | 0.2656 | 19.55 | 0 | — | — | **10.03%** |
| 1（1/2） | 0.5273 | 0.2695 | 18.78 | 1.57 | 20.35 | **7.7%** | 9.63% |
| 2（+1/4） | 0.5234 | 0.2617 | 18.12 | 5.00 | 23.11 | 21.6% | 9.29% |
| 3（+1/8） | **0.5156** | **0.2578** | 16.48 | 9.70 | **26.18** | 37.1% | **8.45%** |
- **预注册判读命中低那一支**（转化率 <60%）：把全拒变成"慢一拍的动作"确实随档数上升（7.7%→37.1%），但**到达和时限一点没赚**（0.5234/0.2656 → 0.5156/0.2578，方向还是负的）。⇒ 被全拒的那些状态不是"差一点就能过"，而是**这个方向本来就不通**：缩步只是慢一点去撞同一堵墙。
- 更值得警惕的是第二列和最后一列的**背离**：`brake_rate`（§9.2 要 <2% 的那个判据）从 10.03% 一路降到 8.45%，`brakes_mean` 降 16%，**但真实结果没变好**。也就是说**缩步档可以只改善刹停率指标而不改善行为**——判据本身能被绕过。而且"全拒事件合计"反而从 20.35 涨到 26.18：缩步把机械臂带进了更容易被拒的几何里。
⇒ 规则：**任何降低刹停率的改动，必须同时报到达与时限**，只看 `brake_rate` 会奖励错误行为。这条已加进 #25 的分层读数要求。
- 处置：`backoff` 保持默认关、**作为到达率杠杆判掉**；它在"减少原地站住"这件事上确实有效（−16% 刹停），所以留作实机上"不许完全停住"这类需求的安全侧选项，不再投入档位扫描。
- 下一步（链已结束，可以改库）：#25 分层指标（可达分母 / 按类别到达率 / `brake_rate_p90` / `stuck_share`）→ 用它重读 K=16（#27：+3.9 pp 到底买在哪一类）→ 才轮到 #24（几何信息进打分，直接打 B/C 类"方向不通"）。
## 控制臂对表：22/22 键逐位复现 + 仪表预测精确命中（轮次 42）
- `--backoff 0 --cert_batch 1 --inc_cap 1` 重跑轮次 33 cap 配方：**两文件共有的 22 个指标键全部相等，差异集合为空**（第三次确认批量认证分支重写没有改变行为）。